Indirect talks between the US and Iran on April 12th initially generated optimism, with both sides describing the first round's outcome as constructive.
There was a glimmer of hope that the US might permit Iran to maintain its nuclear program, contingent upon uranium enrichment remaining at 3.67% for use in electricity-generating nuclear reactors, and with a cap of 300 kg on the total enriched uranium stockpile until 2030.
However, Iran views any demand to abandon enrichment beyond this permissible level and to restrict it to a specific site, as stipulated by the now-defunct 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as a red line. The US and Israel express concern that Iran has already accumulated over 300 kg of uranium enriched to 60%. While still significantly below the 90% weapon-grade threshold, both nations believe it is only a matter of time before Iran reaches that point.
Ambassador Steve Witkoff, who headed the US delegation for the Oman talks, stated in a Fox News interview on Sunday that Iran could maintain its nuclear program with enrichment at 3.67%. However, he clarified his position a day later, asserting that Iran must completely cease uranium enrichment.
In response, Iran deemed this shift in objectives during negotiations unacceptable. Following the Saturday talks, President Trump publicly stated his intention to make a swift decision on Iran, suggesting his mind was already made up. Despite these diplomatic engagements, the US strategy in the region continues to oscillate between diplomatic overtures and the potential for military action.
In the Middle East, a substantial US military build-up is underway with the arrival of the second aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, and its strike group. This deployment complements the presence of the USS Harry Truman and its accompanying support ships and destroyers, which have been actively conducting airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen.
This sustained military activity likely serves to deter potential threats from the Houthis in the event of a conflict with Iran. Furthermore, the US recently deployed a fleet of B-2 Spirit bombers to Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean.
The current inability to secure a venue for the second round of talks, whether in Oman or Rome, suggests a diminishing probability of achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. This leaves the ultimate decision increasingly in the hands of the President of the United States, the world's sole superpower.
