Despite President Trump's vocal "Drill, baby, drill" mantra, his push to boost crude oil supply has yet to fully take shape. Undeterred, he continues to press forward, shifting his focus toward pressuring oil producers—particularly in the Middle East—to ramp up output until U.S. production reaches his desired levels. His administration has already leaned on OPEC+, the alliance of OPEC and Russia, to increase supply.
Yielding to U.S. pressure, OPEC+ recently agreed to ease the production cuts it had implemented to "stabilize" oil prices. Starting in April, the cartel will boost output by 138,000 barrels per day (bpd)—the first such increase since 2022. This decision comes as oil prices showed signs of stabilization late in the week of March 07, 2025, after a significant decline. As of 18:00 GMT, WTI and Brent crude prices stood at $67.04 and $70.36 per barrel, respectively.
Meanwhile, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has surged to a two-year high, driven by cold spells, supply constraints, and geopolitical tensions tied to the Trump administration’s policies.
Adding another layer of complexity, seasoned analysts note that the arrival of warmer weather across the Northern Hemisphere with the onset of spring could soften LNG demand, potentially altering the trajectory of its record-high prices. Whether these combined factors—OPEC+’s output increase, Trump’s geopolitical strategies, and seasonal shifts—will stabilize energy markets remains a point of debate among experts.
The US media, meanwhile, reports that President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia very soon: on one hand, he wants to reach out to Russia with the Saudi mediation bring the war in Ukraine to an end; on the other hand, he wants to see the supply of crude oil from the OPEC+ increased so that the inflation turns south - a key election promise.
Yielding to U.S. pressure, OPEC+ recently agreed to ease the production cuts it had implemented to "stabilize" oil prices. Starting in April, the cartel will boost output by 138,000 barrels per day (bpd)—the first such increase since 2022. This decision comes as oil prices showed signs of stabilization late in the week of March 07, 2025, after a significant decline. As of 18:00 GMT, WTI and Brent crude prices stood at $67.04 and $70.36 per barrel, respectively.
Meanwhile, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has surged to a two-year high, driven by cold spells, supply constraints, and geopolitical tensions tied to the Trump administration’s policies.
Analysts attribute the steep rise to these factors, but some question whether OPEC+’s modest production hike will meaningfully shift crude oil market dynamics—especially given Trump’s broader political moves. For instance, he aims to scale back U.S. oil operations in Venezuela and tighten sanctions on Iran, the nation with the world’s third-largest oil reserves, over its lack of transparency on nuclear activities.
Adding another layer of complexity, seasoned analysts note that the arrival of warmer weather across the Northern Hemisphere with the onset of spring could soften LNG demand, potentially altering the trajectory of its record-high prices. Whether these combined factors—OPEC+’s output increase, Trump’s geopolitical strategies, and seasonal shifts—will stabilize energy markets remains a point of debate among experts.
The US media, meanwhile, reports that President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia very soon: on one hand, he wants to reach out to Russia with the Saudi mediation bring the war in Ukraine to an end; on the other hand, he wants to see the supply of crude oil from the OPEC+ increased so that the inflation turns south - a key election promise.
Not only did the OPEC+ increase the production, some members such as Saudi Arabia, even reduced the price for Asia this week.
In China, meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, reported that its manufacturing PMI has risen above 50% threshold in February, indicating a growth in manufacturing sector. The tariff war with the US, however, has dampened the optimism somewhat, unless in the absence of an amicable settlement in the offing; President Xi Jinping, for instance, was not prepared to throw in the towel yet, despite the heavy impact on the Chinese economy.
As for Iranian oil imports by China, it is not clear what China is going to do with President Trump maximum pressure campaign against Iran. If China abandons relatively cheap Iranian oil, the impact will be badly felt by both China and Iran simultaneously.
As uncertainties on many fronts grow unabated, the investors are nervous about the near-term market dynamics. The wildly fluctuating oil prices reflect the development that more often than not defy basics in the oil markets.
