Oil price: diverging forecasts on oil demand from two global giants
Data and Image: credit - IEA IEA (2024), Annual oil demand growth, 2011-2025, IEA, Paris The Paris-based International Energy Agency, IEA, put a damper yet again on the perceived demand for oil in 2024 and 2025, in stark contrast to that of the OPEC+, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia. According to IEA’s latest report on the subject, released in June, 2024, the growth will be a fairly modest 960 kbpd - 960 thousand barrels per day in 2024; it is a drop of 100 kbpd from IEA’s own previous estimate. The IEA cites a weaker demand in China for the drop in demand in this year. China’s PMI, the key indicator that reflects the manufacturing activity, for instance, has been in decline for a few successive months, even below the psychologically sensitive 50%, the threshold; it went above 50% in March, only to come down again in April - and then, to continue the decline into May. It is no secret that the oil producers pin their hopes on China and India in or
