Unlike his charismatic father, the eye-doctor-turned, current Syrian leader, Bashar al Assad, has been very unfortunate, when it comes to holding his country with a rich history in the realm of civilization, together, for well over a decade.
It became a playing field for numerous actors on his watch to sow seeds of individual vested interests, in the aftermath of civil unrest that followed the Arab Spring. The US, Iran, Russia and Turkey are all in it, vying for holding on to their own sphere of influence.
A coalition of rebel groups launched a major offensive on 28 November, 2024, by coincidence, immediately after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a fragile ceasefire.
Having been taken aback by the scale of the offensive, not only did the Syrian army flee the areas around Aleppo, the second largest city, but also lost ground in key areas in quick succession. As of Thursday afternoon, the City of Hama has fallen into the hands of the rebels.
Turkey, an immediate neighbour, is supporting a rebel group known as SNA, Syrian National Army, while claiming that it wants to send the Syrian refugees back to their own country, without being burdened by their presence any more.
Turkey has a secondary goal too: it wants to keep the Kurdish fighters of the SDF, Syrian Democratic Forces, as far away as possible for obvious reasons.
Iran and Russia, meanwhile, are trying to prop up the Syrian Army that showed collapsing in some areas. Iranian desire to intervene militarily with material support, however, has been severely hampered by frequent attacks by the Israeli Air Force. As for Russia, the involvement in Ukraine does not make it easier for it to deploy the air power, as it used to do in the past in support of Syrian ground forces.
Although the US supports the Kurdish-led SDF, it is not directly involved in the rebel offensive against the Assad administration. It, however, launches air strikes against the Iran-backed militia at will, in response to the attacks against the US bases in Syria.
As the offensive gets more and more intense, there are reports of military tanks, sophisticated radar systems and bases falling into the rebel hands. The rebels, meanwhile, make it clear where their final destination will be - Damasus, the Syrian capital.
Although the situation is fluid, military analysts believe that it is not easy to write off the Syrian Army as yet, as the tribal loyalties are always at the apex of any conflict in the region that determine the final outcome.
Despite his poor handling of the affairs of the Syrian state on the military front, at least, President Bashar al Assad managed to keep the country secular in the region that he manages to govern.
Judging by the diversity of the rebel factions, that does not seem to be something to be taken for granted anymore, if the status quo dramatically changes.
