The US state of Florida is bracing itself for a direct hit by Hurricane Milton that develops into a major storm, on Wednesday.
Since the Gulf of Mexico is one of the most important region for energy resources and infrastructure, both onshore and offshore, in the US, the world's top energy producer by far, it goes without saying the potential impact on oil and gas supply in the short run.
The region, according to the EIA, US Energy Information Administration, accounts for 14% and 5% of world's oil production and 5% gas production respectively. In addition, says the EIA, the refining capacity of oil and gas in the region stands at 48% and 51% respectively. In short, there will be a significant impact on the supply side of the two commodities in the next few weeks.
The price of crude oil that rose in the aftermath of the missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel, meanwhile, subsided a little on Tuesday as the anticipated retaliation did not take place at the weekend. As of 11:50 GMT, the prices of WTI and Brent were at $75.75 and $79.62 respectively.
The tension, however, remains the same as the prospects of a ceasefire are almost gone with the wind; the rise in the next phase of the flare-up is just a matter of time.
With the daily air attacks on Hezbollah's military assets by Israel on the rise, Iran is rapidly losing the influence of a key ally that could otherwise have helped mitigate a potential military assault on the Shia nation. Although Iran still has its a few proxies in the region to help its military objectives to a certain extent, they are just minnows, compared to the formidable Hezbollah that used to be stronger than some conventional Middle Eastern armies, thanks to its loyal hierarchy, military assets, discipline and welfare projects for the poorer sections of the Shia community in the southern Lebanon.
There is plenty of speculation about the potential sites that Israel may choose to strike as the form of retaliation against the unprecedented missile attack against the Jewish state. At no time in history, has there been a military strike involving almost 200 ballistic missiles; that is also focussing on a relatively small geographical area, the state of Israel.
The Israelis breathed a sigh of relief, when there was not a single death despite the ferocity of the onslaught, thanks to Israel's three-layered anti-missile system involving the Iron Dome, David's Sling and Arrow Anti-missile System. The only person who got killed was a hapless palestinian who happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time, when a falling canister of a missile, hit by an anti-missile, fired from the ground to intercept it. Israelis, however, admitted that there was some damages to two airbases, but not the fighter jets.
As far as the oil markets are concerned, the fate of Kharg island is the focus of attention right now. Kharg Island is Iran's primary oil export terminal. It's equipped with loading facilities capable of handling multiple Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), making it a crucial node for Iranian oil exports. Any disruption in the crucial island directly impacts Iran's ability to export oil, which can have a ripple effect on global oil prices and leave a big dent on Iran's vital revenues.
Not only is the island located in the Persian Gulf, but also is near the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic location makes it a focal point for maritime traffic, as the Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint through which about 21% of the world's oil passes. Control over or threats to Kharg Island could potentially influence the flow through this vital artery of global oil trade. This is the reasons both the investors and analysts hawkishly watch over the fate of island at present.
As of Tuesday, it remains closed for operational activities as Iran has moved both tankers and operators away from the island, perhaps in anticipation of a direct attack on the island, especially its oil facilities.
The diplomatic manoeuvres, meanwhile, seem to be in full swing to avoid an all out war; those who are engaged in the activity, including the US, however, are fully aware of futility of trying to stop Israel from carrying out the planned retaliation.
In this context, all eyes are on Israel over the way it is going to hit Iran in the coming days - or in hours, because, Iran and its archfoe in the region, have never been at a direct war, despite being engaged in shadowy wars for decades.
Like it or not, the crude oil markets are going to react to it in the usual way - at least in the short run.
