The much-anticipated Israel strike, involving 140 fighter jets, against Iran in the wee hours on Saturday, reduced the tension somewhat in the Middle East as the Western leaders hope it would bring an end to the tit-for-tat cycle of attacks and counter attacks.
Within hours of the unprecedented attack, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister said, that the mission was accomplished: he said 20 military targets including the anti-air-defence systems and radars wee hit; in addition, over 120 aircrafts that took part in the onslaught returned to the bases in Israel, having covered over 2000 km of distance.
The fleet of planes that involved were F-35s, F-16s and F-15s, in addition to spy planes and of course, refuelling aircrafts due to the distance involved in the mission.
According to the reports, at first, they appear to have attacked the air defences of Syria, perhaps, in order to clear the path for the fighter jets to enter Iran without being detected. It looks like the Israelis used Iraqi airspace at some point, judging by the protest made by Iraq on Monday against what it calls the, blatant violation of its airspace. As usual, Israel has been tight-lipped about the way they carried out the attack.
During the second stage, a plane specialized in electronic warfare, is thought have jammed the formidable, Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft system along with other less formidable Russian-made air defences as well as those of Iran.
Once that feat was achieved, Israel F-35 fighter jets became active in the scene while destroying the anti-aircraft batteries and corresponding radar facilities , thanks to their cutting-edge performance and above all, radar evading capabilities.
There are reports that all four S-300 anti-aircraft batteries were affected at strategic locations, in addition to the anti-aircraft batteries that protected the oil infrastructure. In short, if the reports are correct, the Iranian airspace is now exposed for an enemy to attack.
At this stage, Iran may have realized its vulnerability and resorted to almost World-War-Two type munitions – anti-aircraft guns. There were plenty of firing from these guns in a desperate attempt to take on the fighter jets that moves at speeds, twice as fast as that of sound and far beyond the reach of these ammunitions; the firing was almost random in the middle of darkness in the early hours in the morning.
Having been emboldened by making the Iranian air defences redundant, Israel may have attacked the preselected military installations.
Days before the strikes were launched, Youv Gallant, the Israel defence minister, had been boasting that Israel would hit the strategic targets with surgical precision in such a way that the Iranians would wonder where they came from.
The strategic targets were hit, indeed, but Iranians seem to knowing where the fighter jets really came from. They must have come across either Iraq or Saudi Arabian airspace; the countries in question lost no time in condemning the attack against Iran, once the operation was over!
Judging by the number of fighters jets involved and removal of potential aerial threats, Israel could have hit the oil facilities, generals, nuclear sites and even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. Due to enormous American pressure, however, Israel toned down the attack and focussed on just the military targets.
One of the key targets, according to Israeli media, has been the site that produced specific fuel for the ballistic missiles that Iran used to attack Israel a few weeks ago. It appeared to be a critical blow to the missile industry as repairing them take years, not months.
Iran is under tremendous pressure from within, especially the ultra-conservative hardliners, to retaliate for yesterday's attack. In the absence of air defence systems after Saturday’s attack, the stakes cannot be higher for Iran, if it chooses to do so, though.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, released a measured statement on the attack, contradicting the politicians and some generals: “The actions of the Zionist regime from two nights ago should neither be overstated nor dismissed. Their miscalculations must be challenged, and the strength, determination, and ingenuity of the Iranian people—especially the youth—must be made clear. It is up to our leaders to decide how best to demonstrate the power and resolve of the Iranian nation and to act in the best interest of our country.” In short, he did not deny the damage on certain military facilities.
The attack must have resulted in unexpected setbacks for Israel too: some of the special ammunition that Israel used against Iranian targets deep underground were meant to be used against the nuclear facilities, but they now have been exposed to the military analysts across the world, including the Iranians; Israel has been developing them for decades in the hope of attacking the sites in Iran that the former thought were there for the destruction of the Jewish state.
As far as the Americans are concerned, they are not interested in the regime change in Iran. It makes perfect sense; the American track record in this regard, be it in Afghanistan or Iraq, is not very impressive.
On the other hand, Iran is not a banana republic: Iran is a democracy, although it may not be perfect; it has a perfectly functioning civil systems and has a highly educated, smart populace. If people are given some sort of freedom, especially women, Iran still can survive in the current form and perfectly amalgamate itself into the rest of the world.
The sudden collapse of the Iranian theocracy is in nobody’s interest. There are Sunni militants that fight against Iran from the periphery of the country, who could pose a much bigger threat to the world, if power falls into their hands. The West is aware of this threat and many other potential threats in the absence of a properly-functioning government.
It is true that the ruling Iranian theocracy for its own reasons hate the Americans and Jews; whether its is true among the ordinary Iranians, however, remains to be seen; this is the big unknowns for the Iranians authorities too. After the attack on Saturday, the IRGC, Iranian Republican Guard Corps, threatened anyone who dares to share the photos of destruction with 10-year imprisonment.
In a separate development, the Supreme Leader of Iran opened an X account, former Twitter, in Hebrew language, perhaps in the hope of reaching out the Jewish people across the world. X, however, suspended this particular account within 48 hours, while allowing other accounts, in English, French and Farsi, owned by the Iranian leader to function as usual.
The Iranian leader is not the only one that maintains X account; there is a government account and accounts owned by former English-speaking ministers.
It is slightly ironical that ordinary Iranians are not allowed to use the social media based in the US.
With the multi-pronged attack on military installations in Iran on Saturday, sparing the oil infrastructure, the tension of analysts and investors of the oil markets subsided significantly. In response, the prices of crude oil started going down again as the markets opened for business on Monday.
As of 14:37 on Monday, the price of WTI and Brent were at $67.73 and $71.95 respectively, losing about $3 a barrel.
If Iran retaliates in the hope that the US will restrain Israel not to reciprocate on the grounds of the presidential election just days away, however, things can change very quickly on many different fronts with the oil markets being the first.
