The price of crude oil experienced a slight uptick before the weekend, potentially influenced by the unexpected U.S. interest rate cut and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The recent Israeli attack on Lebanon, utilizing pagers, significantly intensified regional tensions, raising fears of an imminent war. Although skirmishes have persisted between Israel and Hezbollah for nearly a year, a major escalation was averted despite the loss of key Hezbollah commanders. Saturday night witnessed a tit-for-tat exchange of bombings and missile attacks.
On the economic front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has alleviated concerns about a U.S. recession. Lower interest rates encourage borrowing, stimulating business investment and consumer spending. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar makes oil more affordable for non-U.S. currency holders, increasing demand.
However, short-term oil price concerns remain, as evidenced by the modest price increase. The global economic outlook continues to be uncertain.
U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 1.63 million barrels during the week ending September 13, 2024, falling short of expectations. According to the EIA, U.S. crude stocks stood at 417.5 million barrels at the end of that week.
Regarding Middle East tensions, military analysts have predicted a regional war since the Hamas-Israel conflict began last October. While there have been moments suggesting such a possibility, both sides have taken steps to prevent the conflict from spreading.
Iran, while not directly involved against Israel, has the potential to be drawn into the conflict. Despite threats and the targeting of its proxies, Iran seems hesitant to escalate, potentially due to domestic concerns such as high living costs, unemployment, and international isolation.
Overall, the Middle East war appears likely to remain confined to Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah, with Iran maintaining an external position. While intermittent flare-ups may occur, a full-scale war is unlikely due to the significant risks involved.
In this context, economic factors will primarily shape crude oil price dynamics in the coming months.
