The monthly OPEC+ meeting ended on Tuesday without a
major shift in production policy of the organisation; the members agreed to go
ahead with the planned increase in the output for June and July.
The price of crude oil, Brent, meanwhile, hit above the
psychologically significant mark, $70, on Tuesday despite the outcome of the
OPEC+ ministerial meeting not being clear.
There were plenty of speculations about the possible
last-minute policy changes on social media, though; nothing materialised in the
end.
Although the members stated that they did not take up
the issue of the revival of 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and its potential impact
on the supply / price pair, no adjustment was made with regard to the crude oil
output beyond July.
The members of the OPEC+, however, appear to be
cautious about Iran’s entry into the markets; Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the
Saudi Energy Minister, meanwhile, said on Wednesday, that oil producers must
remain ‘extremely cautious’, citing the uncertainty over keeping Covid-19 at
bay.
He lost no time in rebuking those who predict the
moves by the OPEC+ - and oil price for that matter: “Those who are trying to predict the next move
of OPEC+, to those I say, don’t try to predict the unpredictable,” said Prince
Abdulaziz.
The Iranian media, meanwhile, echoes reasonable
optimism about a possible breakthrough during the discussion in Vienna over the
revival of the JCPOA, 2015 Iran nuclear deal: the tone seems to be much more conciliatory
than it was a few days ago; quoting Iranian officials, they even say that neither
the forthcoming presidential election nor the new administration will affect
the ongoing talks over the nuclear deal.
At the beginning of the week, a key Iranian official
blamed unnamed ‘West Asian regimes’ on the difficulties faced by the Iranian
delegation in reaching a deal in the talks involving the signatories to the
2015 nuclear deal; the use of the nations in questions in plural sense clearly indicates that Iran is looking above the shoulders of its arch-enemy in the region, Israel, in spotting the what it considers, 'trouble-makers'.
In another development, the largest ship in the
Iranian navy caught fire in the seas near southern Iran on Tuesday; the ship,
which could not be salvaged despite a 24-hour operation, finally sank; there
were no casualties though; what happened to the ship, however, remains a
mystery.
As far as the security in Saudi Arabia is concerned,
meanwhile, the explosive-laden drone menace by Houthi rebels shows no sign of
abating; on the contrary, the level of sophistication and frequency are
becoming a major headache for the Saudi-led Arab coalition forces.
Against this backdrop, when Saudi Energy Minister
says that the OPEC+ must be ‘extremely
cautious’, he knows the difficult road ahead in the volatile region
where short-lived reconciliations are as frequent as price fluctuations of the
commodity in question.
