The prospects of a success in reviving the JCPOA,
2015 Iranian nuclear deal, is slowly turning into a desert mirage, keeping a
grand audience of investors, traders, analysts and of course and of course, men
and women in the street in a state of confusion; it’s not a spectacle to watch
that in turn keep you in awe.
With the seizure of the domains of certain Iranian news
websites by the US government, the possibility of reaching a deal seems much
more unlikely than it was a few weeks before; when the newly-elected Iranian
president says that negotiations for the sake of negotiations do not make any
sense, it vaguely reflects the mood of the incoming administration in early
August.
Although the outgoing administration of President
Hassan Rouhani wants to leave a happy legacy with the success of a deal,
judging by the events since the election, it may be easier said than done; at
some point in the past few weeks, Mr Rouhani was so optimistic about a deal
being struck that it sent crude oil prices almost nosediving!
Of course, oil price has since recovered and is on
the rise again; it is clear that the price of oil has been dancing to the drum
beats of the talks, or rather the communiques that use to come after each round
of talks, in Vienna, Austria, involving the signatories to the nuclear deal.
It’s not the eternal animosity between the US and
Iran that erects roadblock along the way to the success of reaching a new deal.
The regional players want guarantee that the sole purpose of Iranian nuclear
ambitions is for civilian purposes.
Although Iran and its main regional rival on
religious grounds, Saudi Arabia, tried to mend their strained relationship, the
newly elected president does not seem to be in a hurry to warming up to it; the
Saudis, meanwhile, say the restoring ties depends on the realities on the
ground.
In his first policy address, referring to Yemen, Ebrahim
Raisi, the newly elected Iranian president, said that it must be left to
Yemenis to decide their own affairs, not the foreigners, while taking a swipe
at the Arab coalition that regularly bombard Yemen in response to drone attacks
on Saudi targets; the attacks show no sign of abating; on the contrary, they
keep increasing – and with more sophistication.
Against this backdrop, the price of crude oil briefly
dipped on Monday for inexplicable reasons. Analysts attribute it to a possible
increase in output by the OPEC+ to control the rise of oil price. There is no
doubt that the group must be under tremendous pressure to deal with the
increase in price that could damage the fragile global economic growth.
With the relevance of Iranian factor – reviving the
nuclear deal – paling into insignificance, all eyes will be back on the next
OPEC+ meeting on July 1. No wonder oil markets are edgy about the prospect of
an increase in output by the OPEC+ - under international pressure.
