The rollercoaster of talks over the JCPOA, 2015 Iran
nuclear deal, clearly is not short of peaks and troughs during its arduous
journey spanning five distinct phases.
In response, the price of crude oil fluctuated wildly
during the last few days with misplaced fear about a supply glut due to the
arrival of Iranian oil into the markets.
On Tuesday, however, there were news-reports
indicating that the signatories to the nuclear deal met with a serious impasse
during their talks in Vienna; market watchers, understandably, attributed the
rise in oil price to this development.
On Wednesday, however, optimism returned again from
the negotiation team: Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top negotiator, said on Wednesday
that all sides of negotiations have shown their seriousness clearly.
Mr Araghchi went on to say that the team
representing the signatories to the deal are eager to arrive at a conclusion
during the fifth round of talks, which is said to be the final.
Although he didn’t mince his words while describing
the difficult nature of the talks, he expressed his hope that an agreement
would be reached by the end of this round of talks.
The renewed optimism on the part of the top Iranian
negotiator managed to partially eclipse the cautious mood of Anthony Blinken,
the US Secretary of State, who more or less dampened the hope, very recently.
It’s a race against time for the Iranian team, most
probably picked up the outgoing President Hassan Rouhani’s administration,
which wants to revive the deal that came about on their watch in 2015; they are
aware of the possibility of hardliners returning to the administration with the
presidential elections in June – and the risks involved when it comes to
sanctions.
If a deal is struck, the crude oil prices will react
to the anxiety over a potential supply glut for a few days. It, however, is
going to be short-lived as the global growth forecasts are strong enough to
stem the tide.
