Oil price recorded a rise this week, having been on
a downward trend for weeks.
The main pushing factor has been China’s impressive
economic growth, coupled with its ability to control the pandemic, despite
being the epicentre of the catastrophe, last year.
All indications are that it’s full steam ahead; the
Chinese refineries are back in business with heightened activity while the
regular maintenance phase is slowly coming to an end.
The other encouraging factor has been the strong US
economic data; the significance drop in US crude oil inventories in the past
week and the accelerated vaccine rollout are nurturing the positive sentiment
in the markets.
In Asia and Europe, however, there are still serious
concerns about the resurgence of the number of infections; the slow pace of
vaccine rollout does not help calm the nerves of the investors.
In India, for example, the situation is painting a
grim picture: the major cities are staring into an abyss of lockdowns; the
demand of crude oil has clearly dropped during the first two weeks of April;
vaccine rollout has slowed down due to logistical issues – and shortages.
The development is going to affect the economic
growth very badly; the manufacturing and agricultural sectors are going to bear
the brunt of the impact.
When the economy showed signs of improvement, people
preferred private vehicles to public transport – for obvious reasons; the increased
consumption of petrol reflected the trend; with the rapid rise in infections,
people will choose to stay indoors rather than venturing out; the activities at
the pumps are already dwindling.
In light of these developments, in India in
particular and in Asia in general, the only thing that the people in the region
can do is hoping against hope that the resurgence of the pandemic will die
down, following the exact set of events during the first wave.
